Confusing a streak with skill.

A run of winning bets is real. The explanation for it may still be uncertain.

After a good few weeks, it’s natural to feel that something has clicked. Maybe your analysis improved. Maybe results happened to go your way. The account balance alone doesn’t separate those explanations.

How much a record tells you depends on the number of bets, their odds and stakes, and whether you’re counting all of them. Ten long-shot wins and ten short-priced wins mean different things. Several bets on the same outcome aren’t separate tests of your skill.

Confidence can grow faster than the evidence.

That becomes expensive if you increase your stakes because of a run you don’t yet understand. Keeping a complete record is more useful than remembering the bets that made you feel especially right.