Seeing patterns in randomness.

A convincing explanation after a result isn’t the same as a prediction that worked beforehand.

Look through enough player statistics and you’ll find streaks: the last five away games, games on Tuesdays, games after a loss. Some patterns have a real explanation. Others appear because there are so many possible patterns to look for.

It’s especially easy to invent a story once you know what happened. A player scored because they were “due,” or didn’t score because the defense “had them figured out.” Either result can be made to sound inevitable.

Ask whether the idea existed before the result, whether it holds beyond the few examples selected, and whether it is already reflected in the odds. A pattern needs more support than a neat story.